REAL TALK
Beyond the Headlines
With Keith Smith · Week 39 · Central Virginia
Housing. Community. What it means for you.
WEEK 39 • 2026 · SEPTEMBER 21–27 · CENTRAL VIRGINIA
From the September 25 conversation
More choice.
A different pace.
The housing market is moving.
The experience depends on where you are.
A NOTE FROM KEITH
Hey all,
More choices for buyers. More competition for sellers. Here’s what stood out from Friday’s conversation with Scott Morris and Erica May.
Micro markets matter. So does your monthly payment.
Keith
01 / The local picture
Same market. Different stories.
CAAR MLS data only
2025 compared with 2026
Last 28 days
August 28–September 24 of each year
New listings: +50% (242 in 2025 → 364 in 2026)
Price changes: +49% (260 in 2025 → 387 in 2026)
Pending sales: +12% (227 in 2025 → 255 in 2026)
KEITH’S TAKE: More new listings and more contracts, but listings are growing faster. That gives buyers more to consider and sellers more competition.
Year to date
January 1–September 24 of each year
Total sales: +4.9% (2,666 in 2025 → 2,797 in 2026)
Median sale price: +1.3% ($474K in 2025 → $480K in 2026)
Average sale price: −1.0% ($621K in 2025 → $615K in 2026)
KEITH’S TAKE: More sales, a slightly higher median and a lower average. Those signals can coexist when the mix of homes sold changes. They don’t tell us the value of any one home.
By price range
January 1–September 24 of each year
$500K–$750K sales: +20.9% (130 more sales)
Below $300K sales: −16.6% (60 fewer sales)
$1M+ sales: +1.3% (303 in 2025 → 307 in 2026)
$2M+ sales: −12.3% (65 in 2025 → 57 in 2026)
$2M+ is a subset of $1M+. The price ranges shown do not cover the whole market.
KEITH’S TAKE: The middle of this price comparison grew while entry-level and $2M+ sales fell. My read: the changing sales mix helps explain why the average and median moved in different directions.
What these numbers cover
Keith’s September 24 show-prep snapshots, using CAAR MLS data only across Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson. Year-to-date figures cover January 1–September 24 of each year; the recent comparison uses matching 28-day windows. The show’s overall sales comparison includes all property types in that dataset.
These are the show’s dated snapshots, not a live feed or a complete count from every MLS. Other MLS activity is excluded, which particularly matters in Louisa. Price changes are recorded changes, not a count of price reductions alone. New listings and pending sales are separate groups of listings; their ratio does not tell us what share of the new listings sold.
Prices displayed in thousands are rounded. $2M+ sales are included within $1M+ sales. A change in the mix of properties sold can move an average; it does not establish how much an individual home gained or lost in value.
02 / Erica’s take
Make it fit your life.
Erica May, a YES Realty Partners associate broker and Barboursville native, brought the conversation back to everyday life.
Buyers: start with a comfortable payment. Consider your commute, family support and how long you’ll stay.
Sellers: condition, competitive pricing and flexibility matter.
More about Erica
Erica works with Michael Noe on the Erica & Michael Realtor Team. She went to school in Albemarle County, returned to Charlottesville after living in Colorado and also brings experience as a property investor.
03 / Scott’s first-year buydown
A year of breathing room.
With 30-year rates moving higher, I asked Scott for options. He’s offering to pay for a first-year 1–0 buydown for qualifying buyers who finance through him.
Your payment is calculated as if the rate were one percentage point lower for 12 months. The goal: breathing room now, then explore refinancing if rates improve and the numbers work.
Ask Scott Morris · Envoy Mortgage
804-267-0677 · Email Scott · Connect →
NMLS #1802398
Scott confirms eligibility, seller approval and terms. Refinancing isn’t guaranteed; budget for the full payment after year one.
How the buydown works
The fixed note rate stays the same. A funded subsidy lowers the first-year payment; the full principal-and-interest payment begins in year two.
04 / Scott’s listing benchmark
Watch the first two weeks.
Scott built this benchmark over two years, tracking Realtor.com, Zillow and similar sites alongside showings. His targets, all within the first 14 days:
Falling short? Review pricing, presentation and buyer feedback early. This is Scott’s benchmark, not a guarantee of an offer.
Listing activity | First 14 days |
|---|---|
Views | 1,000 |
Saves | 100 |
Showings | 12 |
Offers targeted | 1 or more |
05 / Go a little deeper
The show and the slides.
Scott and Erica joined Jerry Miller and me, with Judah Wickhauer keeping us on the air.
Browse the episode chapters
04:24 More sales, mixed price signals
Sales were up about 5%. The median rose slightly while the average slipped. We looked at how the mix of sales helps explain those different signals.
16:14 What are buyers waiting for?
Erica brought the conversation back to the payment a buyer is comfortable with and the trade-offs involved in moving farther from work, friends and family.
20:11 Concessions and temporary buydowns
Scott offered to cover the first-year 1–0 buydown for qualifying buyers financing through him, with seller approval. The goal: lower payments for a year, then explore refinancing if rates and the borrower’s situation make it worthwhile.
23:53 More listings, more competition
The matching 28-day snapshots showed new listings up 50%, price changes up 49% and pending sales up 12%. Erica emphasized condition, competitive pricing and a willingness to work with buyers, starting at 24:52.
27:36 Scott’s two-week listing benchmark
Scott outlined the activity he looks for in the first 14 days: 1,000 views, 100 saves and 12 showings. His target is one or more offers in that window. This is his experience-based benchmark, with results varying by property and market.
52:37 How long will you stay?
Erica reinforced why the planned time in a home belongs in the first conversation, using one- or two-year local assignments as an example. We discussed realistic resale expectations and the costs of a short ownership period.
56:50 Sellers: get ahead of the inspection
Preparation can uncover repairs early and reduce surprises once a buyer is involved. We discussed addressing the home’s condition before going to market.
Times follow the show transcript; player timing may vary.
View the five original slides
Slides 1–3: local market. Slides 4–5: gas and housing prep we didn’t fully cover on air.
1 · The latest 28 days
2 · Year to date
3 · What moved?
4 · Gas above $4
5 · Then & now
Original prep slides retain their dates, sources and footnotes; they are not live market figures. Download the original images ↓
What about your neighborhood?
Send me your question and let’s talk.
Be well,
Keith
Real Talk with Keith Smith
Week 39 • 2026 · September 25 episode · Prepared from the show transcript and final show-prep slides.
YES Realty Partners · 969 2nd St. SE, Charlottesville, VA 22902