REAL TALK
Beyond the Headlines
With Keith Smith · Week 41 · Central Virginia
Housing. Community. What it means for you.
WEEK 41 • 2026 · OCTOBER 5–11 · CENTRAL VIRGINIA
October 9, 2026 · The quick read
Every number
tells a story.
More sales. More negotiating.
Your home has its own story.
A NOTE FROM KEITH
Hey all,
Last Sunday, I was riding 95 miles in the rain, trying to hang on to the group. What did the guy beside me want to know? “How’s the real estate market?”
Apparently, there’s no escaping that question—even on a bike. 😄
So Jerry Miller, Woody Fincham—our appraisal and data Jedi—and I dug into it. The answer depends on your neighborhood, your home, and your price.
Keith
01 / The market story
Homes are selling.
The headline doesn’t tell it all.
2,839 closed sales · up 4.8%
$480,000 median sale price · up 1.3%
$615,843 average sale price · down 0.9%
Keith’s CAAR-footprint MLS exports · January–September 2026 vs. the same nine months of 2025. Includes new construction.
Woody’s big addition: count the homes that didn’t sell, too. In his September 2025–August 2026 market year, 24.5% of ended listings expired, were withdrawn or were cancelled without a recorded sale. Active listings are excluded; a home may return to the market.
Why it matters: A regional average can hide your home’s competition. Woody’s study puts the region near balanced, Greene in a seller’s market, and Lake Anna in a strong buyer’s market.
Where the sales shifted
Sales under $300,000 fell from 365 to 307 (−15.9%). The $400,000–under $600,000 band grew from 895 to 982 (+9.7%). Sales at $1 million and up edged from 308 to 313; at $2 million and up, they fell from 66 to 58.
January–September comparisons. The $2M+ sales are also included in $1M+. Changes reflect which homes sold, as well as market conditions.
02 / Price it right from day one
The cost of chasing the market.
Woody’s study found a 9-day median for sold listings without an asking-price cut, versus 86 days for those that cut. Your neighbor’s COVID-era sale isn’t a pricing plan.
My separate MLS analysis tells a similar story:
Selected resale closings · CAAR footprint · January–September 2026
Pricing path | Average days | Median days |
|---|---|---|
No cut · sold above original asking price | 9 | 4 |
No cut · sold at original asking price | 13 | 5 |
No cut · sold below original asking price | 30 | 18 |
Reduced asking price before selling | 93 | 72 |
First three rows have unchanged original and final list prices; the fourth contains price reductions. New construction and other stated exclusions are removed. The reduction group’s average sold price was about $68,023 below its average original asking price—a gap from asking, not a measured loss in value. These are different homes; the data does not prove a price cut caused the delay.
The takeaway: Use current competition, condition and recent comparable sales to set the opening price. Discuss a pre-listing appraisal and inspection when they could help you prepare.
03 / The payment still has to work
You can love the home.
The payment still
has to work.
The affordability takeaway from the conversation
The sale price is only part of the deal. Woody’s slide shows roughly 28% of closed sales with seller-paid costs, with a $9,000 median contribution among those sales.
Closing-cost help and rate buydowns can change the deal. Ask what the buyer actually pays and what the seller takes home.
Woody’s September–August market year. Contributions are not a dollar-for-dollar measure of property value. The panel’s rate forecasts are opinions, not current loan quotes.
04 / Your next move
The same five D’s.
The same five rights.
A different order.
The COVID and post-COVID “unicorn years” are behind us. The market conversation has changed—both why people move and what they need from their next home. These side-by-side comparisons from the show make that shift clear.
The five D’s: Why people buy and sell
Order | Then · The unicorn years | Now · Today’s market |
|---|---|---|
1 | Diamonds Marriage and a home together | Downsizing Retirement or a simpler home |
2 | Diapers A growing family needs room | Divorce One household becomes two |
3 | Divorce One household becomes two | Death Loss and handling a loved one’s home |
4 | Downsizing Retirement or a simpler home | Diamonds Marriage and a home together |
5 | Death Loss and handling a loved one’s home | Diapers A growing family needs room |
What changed: Downsizing, divorce and loss move to the front of the conversation. Life transitions still bring people to the market, even when moving costs more.
The five rights: How buyers choose
Order | Then · The unicorn years | Now · Today’s market |
|---|---|---|
1 | Right location Find the area first, then the home | Right location The neighborhood and street matter |
2 | Right price The asking price sets the starting point | Right features Fits the buyer’s needs from day one |
3 | Right features “We can change that later.” | Right condition Ready to move in; repairs matter |
4 | Right condition “We’ll fix it up.” | Right timing The move fits the buyer’s life |
5 | Right timing “We need to buy right now.” | Right price “Is this home worth it to me?” |
What changed: Features and condition move ahead of price in the decision sequence. Buyers look for a home that fits their lives, then weigh what it is worth to them. Price still matters—and the payment still has to work.
Sellers: Prepare the home and price for today’s competition. Buyers: Use all five rights to evaluate the home and the full cost of the move.
Orders shown in the October 9 discussion slides illustrate the changing market conversation; they are not rankings measured by a buyer or seller survey.
05 / Take a closer look
The slides. The conversation.
Thanks to Woody Fincham of Fincham & Associates, Jerry Miller, and Judah Wickhauer behind the camera.
Jump to a topic
Times follow the supplied transcript; player timing may vary.
View all eight show slides
Headline prices. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
9 vs. 86 days. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
Keith’s pricing analysis. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
Seller-paid costs. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
2025 vs. 2026. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
The five D’s. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
The five rights. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
Paychecks & housing costs. Original credits and data definitions appear on the slide.
Sources and data windows
Woody: October 7 Valuation Nation introduction and findings summary for the Charlottesville Regional Housing Report. Market years run September 1–August 31. His methodology chains relistings at a 30-day threshold; the supplied pricing slide notes its day counts use the current listing only. Read the supplied seven-page summary ↗ or ask Woody for the full study ↗.
Keith: Supplied MLS slides for the CAAR footprint—Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson—January–September comparisons. Pricing analysis uses selected resale closings; headline sales totals include new construction.
Lisa: Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS, October 2 RISMedia presentation; national wages, prices and payment chart reproduced in slide 8.
Show: October 9, 2026, supplied transcript and linked replay. Spoken estimates and forecasts are not verified current market quotations. Where slide figures and rounded spoken numbers differ, this brief uses the slide figures.
So… how’s YOUR market?
Yonna and I can help you understand the story in your neighborhood. Send us your question—and share this with someone thinking about a move.
Be well,
Keith
Real Talk with Keith Smith · Week 41 • 2026
October 9 show recap · Keith Smith, Woody Fincham and Jerry Miller.