REAL TALK BRIEF · WEEK 43 · OCT 19–25, 2026 · CENTRAL VIRGINIA
The market depends on where you’re standing.
More sales. Nearly flat prices. A different story in every neighborhood. Micro Markets Matter.
A NOTE FROM KEITH
Hey all — back in the studio with Jerry, we unpacked a market that looks very different depending on your neighborhood and price range. Regional sales are up a little. Prices are nearly flat. Homes are taking longer to sell.
But that headline won’t tell you what’s happening on your street. Micro Markets Matter. Here’s what the numbers—and a few honest conversations—mean for your next move.
We also established that I can organize Star Trek costumes for the whole crew and still forget to email the slides. Captain Kirk may need a little help from mission control. 😄
— Keith
IN THIS ISSUE
The region: more sales, a slower pace
Price ranges: the middle is doing more of the moving
Closer to home: Fluvanna and Lake Monticello
Your move: what it means for sellers and buyers
A personal note: 40 years, six daily goals
01 · THE REGIONAL PICTURE
More sales. A slower pace.
CAAR six-jurisdiction footprint · Closed sales, January 1–October 23 · 2026 vs. 2025
3,055 CLOSED SALES Up 3.6% · 2,950 in 2025 | $477,400 MEDIAN PRICE Up 0.5% · $475,000 in 2025 | 17 days MEDIAN DOM 4 days longer · 13 in 2025 |
Average sold price: $613,743, down 2.1%. Total sales volume: $1.875 billion, up 1.4%.
Your next move: Buyers and sellers have to work through price and condition again. The balance of negotiating power changes from one micro market to the next.
Meanwhile, in the studio: I told Jerry we wouldn’t finish the year “in the red.” He promptly pointed out that I’d made the positive numbers red on my slides. The market is confusing enough without my help.
02 · PRICE RANGES TELL THE STORY
The middle is doing more of the moving.
The regional total hides big differences. These are changes in the number of homes sold within each price range.
| Sold price | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $300,000 | 402 | 337 | −16.2% |
| $300,000–$399,999 | 610 | 677 | +11.0% |
| $400,000–$499,999 | 600 | 610 | +1.7% |
| $500,000–$599,999 | 376 | 434 | +15.4% |
| $600,000–$749,999 | 313 | 376 | +20.1% |
| $750,000–$999,999 | 309 | 281 | −9.1% |
| $1 million–$1,999,999 | 265 | 280 | +5.7% |
| $2 million+ | 75 | 60 | −20.0% |
Together, the $500,000–$749,999 bands rose from 689 to 810 sales: up 17.6%. Changes in which homes sell can also move the regional average.
03 · CLOSER TO HOME
Fluvanna and Lake Monticello
The show’s local data makes the point: a nearly flat county median can sit alongside a softer market at the Lake.
Closed sales, January 1–October 23 · 2026 figures, with 2025 in parentheses
| Area | Sales | Median price | Median days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluvanna County | 348 (343) | $369,995 ($370,000) | 27 (15) |
| Lake Monticello only | 155 (167) · −7.2% | ≈$351,000 (≈$376,000) · −6.6% | 34 (17) |
A lower area median does not measure the change in value of any individual home. Comparable homes and current competition still matter.
A LONGER VIEW: 40 YEARS OF FLUVANNA ROOFTOPS
The accompanying slide estimates that Fluvanna added about 271 housing units a year from 1986–2006, compared with about 104 a year from 2010–2025. That slower pace gives the housing conversation some history.
From the October 23 show slides. These figures describe total housing stock, not active listings. The 1986 count is estimated; period gains are approximate. The dashed line is hypothetical.
04 · WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
Your next move starts with today’s market.
If you’re selling
Price against current competition. Look honestly at the roof, HVAC, condition and presentation. A pre-listing inspection can help identify work before buyers do.
Your next move: Pay attention to the first two weeks. If showings and serious interest aren’t there, review the feedback and adjust the plan with your agent.
If you’re buying
More time on the market may create room to negotiate in your price range. Look closely at condition and the costs you’ll face after moving in.
Your next move: We also discussed builder incentives. Ask your agent and lender to compare the full cost and terms of any offer, including rate buydowns and closing-cost help.
Good advice starts with an honest conversation. As Michael Guthrie puts it: “I’d rather disappoint you now than disappoint you later.”
05 · A PERSONAL NOTE FROM THE SHOW SLIDES
“How do you two do it for 40 years?”
That was the question Yonna and I heard most at the recent CEO Summit and Buffini Leadership Conference. We’re still figuring it out, but these are our daily goals:
Marriage first. Business second.
Know our strengths. Respect our differences.
Stay in our lanes. Have each other’s backs.
Communicate. Listen. Repeat.
Share the vision, even if our paths differ.
Laugh often. Know when to shut up!
Forty years later, we’re still a work in progress. And we’re still choosing to do it together.
COMING UP ON REAL TALK
A little housing. A little Halloween.
Friday, October 30: We’re going Star Trek: me as Kirk, Jerry as Spock and Judah as Scotty. Jerry’s getting pointy ears. Judah’s working on his Scottish accent. What could possibly go wrong?
Friday, November 13: Dr. Lisa Sturtevant joins us for a closer look at the housing market and the questions behind the numbers.
THE FULL EPISODE
Watch the October 23 show.
Keith Smith · Jerry Miller · Producer Judah Wickhauer
YOUR MARKET, YOUR MOVE
Have a question about your micro market?
Let’s talk about what these numbers mean for you or someone you know. Please share this as you see fit.
Be well,
Keith
Real Talk with Keith Smith · Presented by YES Realty Partners
RealTalkWithKeithSmith.com · 434-531-0795 · [email protected]
Sources & notes: This newsletter draws on the transcript and six-slide presentation for the October 23, 2026 episode of Real Talk with Keith Smith. Regional and Fluvanna figures: Keith Smith’s CAAR MLS exports, January 1–October 23 in each year, including Sold and Sold – Comp Only. Regional data covers the six-jurisdiction CAAR footprint. Fluvanna figures exclude prior-year closings. Lake Monticello: sold-only MLS exports for the same dates; displayed median prices are rounded. Housing stock: U.S. Census figures as presented in the slide, with an estimated 1986 baseline and approximate period comparisons.
Price-band percentages describe changes in closed-sale counts, not appreciation. The combined $500,000–$749,999 change is calculated as (810 − 689) ÷ 689 = 17.6%. Market commentary is Keith’s interpretation; outcomes vary by property.